Online Gambling

Well, this is a first! No good MLB totals wagers today. I am leaning toward MIN @ CHW u9.5 and MIL @ COL u10.5, but the terms would have to move 5 points in my favor before this bet would have a positive expected value (EV). If the MIN @ CHW game moves from u9.5 -110 to -115, then I’d take that bet. Also, if the MIL @ COL game moves from u10.5 -115 to -110, I’d take that bet as well.

One of the reasons that my model did not generate any totals bets is due to the weather. As a rule of thumb, add 1/2 run when the game time temperature approaches 90F, and subtract 1/2 run when the game time temperature approaches 55F. There are six games today that are being played where it is pretty hot today, and adding the 1/2 run to these games’ totals resulted in a “no bet” for several of these games.

I read this rule of thumb regarding game time temperature in an excellent book Betting Baseball 2008 by Michael Murray. I also get MLB weather from VegasInsider.com.

Here are today’s picks, made moments ago at Intertops.

I’ve continued to post my MLB totals picks each day. Overall, I am 75-70 (51.72% winning percentage), for a net loss of $31.28 (-0.97% return on investment).

This briings to mind a point to consider if you read on the internet about a guy whose sports handicapping system is “9-3 in his last 12 SOLID LOCK PICKS” (or some similar claim). The point is this: Your record is irrelvant. What is relevant is your return on investment — how much money these picks made relative to the size of the bets that one had to make to win the money.

Here’s an illustration of my point: Suppose a handicapper claims to have a 9-3 record in his last 12. This could easily have resulted in a net loss if each of his picks was a heavy favorite, say -300 or worse. In fact, if each of his picks were at an average of -300, a 9-3 record is break even, and actually will have cost you money once you factor in the price of making deposits and withdrawals at some online sportsbooks.

I’d really love to see handicappers post their return on investment, rather than their win-loss record, when touting a sports betting system.

The last minute pick on the under of last night’s Boston/Seattle game was a winner, and it made me profitable for yesterday. This illustrates an important point about sports betting — you need to keep an eye on the lines of games that you are close to betting on, but are not getting the price or the terms that you need in order for the bet to have a positive expected value (EV).

Take the BOS @ SEA game for example. When I analyzed the game originally (hours before gametime), the line was u8 -105. My analysis of the game was for 7.3 runs, which computes to an 8% edge on the u8. Since I only wager on games where I have a 25% or higher edge, I did not make a wager on the game at that time. Fifteen minutes before the game, I took another peek at the line at Intertops, and saw that it had moved to u8.5 -105, an edge of 34% on the u8.5. I made the bet, BOS won 5-3, and I won the bet. (I hope you won, too!).

I’ve posted my MLB baseball picks for Tuesday, May 27. Today, we have 4 unders.

Overall Results

Bets for May 27, 2008

Prior Day’s Bets

The line in the BOS@SEA game has moved a 0.5 run from 8.0 to 8.5, while the terms remained at -105. This move makes this a good wager on the under, and I have added it as a last-minute wager to my MLB picks for the day (which are currently at 2-2).

Yesterday was a winning day, going 3-2 and netting $17 on $108 in wagers.

We have 6 wagers today at Intertops, 5 unders and 1 over.